UW model suggests social distancing in WA could be relaxed May 18

 With the number of new confirmed cases of COVID-19 decreasing in Whatcom County and Washington state, state and local governments are starting to plan how to begin easing some social distancing practices and allow more economic activity. 

The state's current stay-at-home order ends May 4, though governor Jay Inslee has indicated that it could be extended. Neither the state nor Whatcom County have released dates for when social distancing restrictions could be eased, but a state-by-state analysis from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) suggests that Washington state can relax some social distancing measures the week of May 18.

The IHME model uses one infection per million people as a threshold for when social distancing can be relaxed, but it only recommends making changes at that point if containment measures are in place to stop a resurgence of the virus. Containment measures include extensive testing, interviews to determine who infected individuals have come into contact with (known as contact tracing) and isolation of new cases.

In the first wave of the outbreak, Washington state went from one case per million to more than 600 per million in a month, from February 28 to March 28, according to data from the state Department of Health. Schools and businesses were open for much of that time; the governor announced statewide school closures on March 13 and issued a stay home order on March 23.

 At an April 20 online press briefing, county health department officials discussed the steps the department is taking toward having extensive testing and contact tracing – things the department wants in place before social distancing is relaxed.

 Cindy Hollinsworth, communicable disease and epidemiology manager said local testing is sufficient to meet current needs and that it is working with clinical partners to expand community testing sites and consulting with healthcare providers on how to set up their own testing sites, she said.

 As of last week, about 1,000 people per week could get tested in Whatcom County, Hollinsworth said.

 The health department has more work to do to improve its ability to contact trace, Hollinsworth said. The health department is training environmental health specialists and other community health staff to do that work, which is done via phone interviews.

 “I think that's going to give us a lot of capacity here at the health department to expand and contract as we need to to do follow-ups. There's also going to be momentum with a statewide plan as well. That's developing this week,” Hollinsworth said.

 The health department also announced on April 20 that it is assembling a task force to help businesses “reopen and feel confident they can keep staff and customers safe,” said health department director Erika Lautenbach. She said the health department would put out information later this week for individuals, businesses, and others who are interested in being part of the task force.

 “Our goals are of course to control and minimize the spread of COVID but also to ensure that people can get back to work and that businesses can reopen,” she said. We’ve seen impacts on public health system and on all of our support systems when people are out of work and unable to earn a living for their family.”

 On April 20, the Whatcom County Health Department reported one new case, and one additional death from the respiratory illness in the past 24 hours. To date, Whatcom County has 278 confirmed cases and 27 deaths.

 Statewide, 11,790 have tested positive for the virus and 634 have died, according to the state Department of Health. In the U.S. about 750,000 have tested positive and 39,083 have died, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As of April 18, 1,647 in B.C. had tested positive, and 81 had died, according to the B.C. Centre for Disease Control.